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Private Investor Group

Standard Investment Plays


Betting on NFL teams on short rest

With the introduction of regular Thursday night NFL games, it has become more important for sports bettors to understand the importance of wagering on teams playing on short rest.

It wasn't long ago that the only time handicappers had to think about short weeks and the impact on football teams, was around Thanksgiving.  But today, it has since become a weekly occurrence, presenting some unique challenges for  teams who need to get ready for games with less preparation time than normal.

To help handicappers make wise betting decisions, here are a few factors they should consider when thinking about that impact of teams playing a short week and how to bet.

The first thing to factor is a team's health. Because a team that is nursing injuries is not  going to have enough time to heal, rest and get put back together before they start preparing for and playing the next game. The challenge for handicappers here, is to pour over injury reports, and then determine if the injuries a team has will have a significant impact on their ability to perform to their full potential.

They can so this by looking deeper than just the injury itself. For starters, helping to alleviate the effect of injuries on a team playing a short week, will be a its experience level.  The more times a player or team goes through the trials of a short week, the easier it is for them to deal with it. That's why handicappers should bet on the older and more experienced team when facing this situation.

Still, often times the burden of playing a game on a short week is accompanied by travel, which has more of an impact on NFL teams than handicappers often give credit.  It's a proven fact that teams that travel are at a disadvantage, and the further the trip is, the worse the impact. NFL teams playing a short week game on the road are probably good to bet against in this case.

However, if their opposition is much weaker, or has had a terrible time at home and playing games, especially on  a short week, then maybe they would be worth betting on as the road underdog.  Nevertheless, this situation is rare, as most  home teams are the more rested, even more on a short week. The most mathematical sports bettors like the huffpo featured one will look for discrenpencies in a similar manner as how hedge funds look for trading loopholes.

Finally, handicappers need to look at the coaching history of the two teams playing a short week game.

Coaches and teams have routines, and any disruption in a team's routine can have a powerful effect on the way a team performs.

A short week means less time to study film, less time to make or adjust schemes or games plans and less time to practice and solve problems.
And while some coaches can adapt, others don’t.

Looking back at what has happened when coaches have faced these situations in the past can offer NFL handicappers valuable, often profitable insight, when making their NFL picks on teams playing on short rest.

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