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Week 10 Prediction: Saints Put Boots On and March Past Bengals

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Week 10 Prediction: Saints Put Boots On and March Past Bengals


NFC South vs. AFC North. The Saints go marching up to Cincinnati to face the Bengals in Week 10. Heritage Sports, one of the most highly rated sportsbooks at SBR has Brees, and New Orleans listed as 4.5-point favorites in this nonconference affair. Will the Saints continue to roll, or will the Bengals secure their spot at 2nd in the AFC North?

 

No. 2 Offense vs. No. 30 Defense

 

Crazier things have happened this season than a team that is expected to win by four or five points losing. But when we look a little closer, this matchup could be much more lopsided than the fairly short point-spread indicates.


The Saints have the second-best offense in the league. They drill their opponents with just under 35 points per game. It doesn’t change much while the Saints are on the road. They still put up 32.50 points per game while marching for the league’s No. 3 road offense. Unfortunately for Bengals fans, Cinci has been allowing 29.6 points per game against much less prolific offenses. They boast the No. 30 overall defense and as a double-whammy, the league’s worst passing D. That isn’t something you want to hear when going up against Drew Brees.


At least Dalton and crew have been able to put up some points of their own. Cincinnati has the No. 10 home scoring offense, putting up 29.75 points per game. Their offense will be going against the Saints No. 16 road defense, that allows 24.5. One thing that should be noted is the saints have the No. 1 run defense overall and the No. 2 run D while on the road. The Bengals offense is 26th in the league for rushing yards, so we should expect the Saints to gobble up the Bengals at the line of scrimmage forcing Dalton to rely heavily on the passing game.

 

Situational ATS Trends for this Matchup

 

The Saints are 4-0 (100%) Against the Spread while on the road this season. Since 2017 they are the second best in the league at covering the number on the highway at 8-4.  The Bengals are 2-2 (50%) against the number at home this year and 6-6 since 2017.


The Saints are also an astounding 80% as away favorites since 2017, going 4-1 ATS in this situation. Although it’s a smaller sample size, the Cincinnati Bengals are 2-0 as home underdogs in that same timeframe. But this weekend’s game is coming after a bye, and Dalton doesn’t typically play as well after the off-week. Since 2011 (the Andy Dalton Era), the Bengals are just 42.9% ATS and in win percentage after their bye week.

 

Recent Performance

 

Everyone thought that the LA Rams were unstoppable. That is until they met the Saints last week. Drew Brees passed for 346 yards and four touchdowns. Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram combined for 115 yards against Aaron Donald and the Rams massive defensive front. Meanwhile, the Saints defense held Todd Gurley to just 68 yards and the Rams under 100 rushing yards on the day.


After getting blown away by Mahomes and the Chiefs, the Bengals managed to squeak out a win over a struggling Tampa Bay Bucs team two weeks ago. Joe Mixon soloed for 123 on the ground, and Andy Dalton put up 280 yards through the air with two TDs. But with that said, had Fitzmagic been in the entire game, the Bengals probably would have lost. A touchdown punctuated Jameis Winston's 1st-half performance… along with four interceptions.

 

Prediction

 

The Saints, the Saints, the Saints. The weak Bengals run game and overpowered Saints run D will allow the New Orleans secondary to almost cheat. They’ll be able to hang back in coverage, not having to worry much about coming up to help with the run. The defense will be too much for the Bengals. There could be a point in the game where it turns into a shootout, but that is the last thing you want against Hurricane Drew. The Saints will definitely win, so that is your survivor pick and they are highly likely to cover the point spread as well.


 

 

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